Photovoltaic power station is a new type of investment way, during the 20 years of operating, trap to remove the force majeure cause plant damage loss risk factors, its long-term objective of income is very stable, therefore has attracted more and more investors. However, the investment of photovoltaic power station also has the characteristics of large upfront investment cost and long payback period, which greatly limits investors' investment confidence. In general, plant earnings from companies charge, charge and KWH subsidies income, but the risk is throughout the power station project during construction and operation, so the project investment evaluation must be done well before the project implementation.
1. Factors that directly affect the income of the power station.
Plant profit = charge + Internet charge + KWH subsidies income which the electricity spontaneous self-used ratio = generation x x enterprise Internet charge = output more than x electric proportion by online feed-in tariff electricity subsidies income = generation x degrees electric subsidies by the above formula, power generation and electricity price level (degree of electricity subsidies for national unity, enterprise electricity prices and a feed-in tariff is difference because of different region, here are prices) and spontaneous self-used ratio is the most important three factors affect plant yield.
1. Generating capacity of the plant.
Power generation is related to solar irradiation, pv module conversion efficiency and photovoltaic module annual power generation attenuation. Exposure is to judge whether an area is suitable for investment important natural factors of photovoltaic power station, a class of solar energy resources are abundant resources in China, the same condition power plant capacity is much higher than three kinds of resources area. In addition, the components of the conversion efficiency is also the important factors that affect power plant generating capacity, monocrystalline silicon components conversion efficiency higher than that of polycrystalline silicon components conversion efficiency, high cost but monocrystalline silicon components, the distributed photovoltaic market still is given priority to with polysilicon components. Generally speaking, when the electricity price level and the spontaneous self-use ratio of the power station are the same, the higher the unit power generation, the greater the profit of the power station.
2. Electricity price level
At present, the average industrial and industrial power consumption in most provinces and cities is used to carry out the electricity price of peak pinggu and peak pinggu power generation, while the feed-in tariff is calculated according to the benchmark grid price of local coal-fired units. The higher the electricity price is, the higher the profit of the power station.
3. Self-use ratio.
Spontaneous self-used proportion and corporate power, power generating capacity, daily working hours, annual vacation days, when resting plant load factors related, spontaneous self-used ratio, the higher (that is, the enterprise to use pv electricity power consumption is higher), plant yield is higher. Generally speaking, the power generation level and the price level are the important factors to determine the project development area, and the local government's support strength and economic development level are also important reference indicators. After confirmed the project development area, on a single project is worth the investment, emphasized the need for evaluation of the project is expected to spontaneously use ratio and based on the power and electricity price is calculating the internal rate of return on the project.
Ii. Risk control process.
When evaluating a single project, the process of each stage and require strict control, especially the contract energy management and energy saving service agreements before the early stage of the project evaluation, mainly from the technical, financial and legal perspective to assess the feasibility of the project. At the same time, the control of project implementation and operation stage is also very important, which directly relates to the actual profitability of the whole project. In conclusion, individual projects need to be evaluated and controlled in the following stages:
(I) preliminary evaluation.
1. Preliminary development
Industry conditions of monomer project must according to enterprise, roof condition, electricity situation, the enterprise management situation, credit, housing and land property rights, and so on and so forth to preliminary evaluate whether the project is necessary to continue to develop.
2. Technical evaluation
From the roof structure and the structure and load bearing, electrical and other technical aspects to judge a practical project, the calculation to the monomer project evaluation, unit installed capacity and fundamental data such as spontaneous self-used rate, thus forming a preliminary technical solution, and provide the basis for financial assessment.
3. Financial evaluation
Through the analysis of the initial investment benefit of the project, the financial status of the project's profitability and solvency is examined, and the investment value of the project is judged. Generally, the internal rate of return of the project is not less than 9%. The main economic indicators of financial evaluation are as follows:
(1) the installed capacity, power capacity is first determined by the roof available area and transformer capacity, but due to spontaneous for personal use, the greater the proportion of income, the higher the power station so electricity enterprise there are limits to how much of the installed capacity. In the case that the basic income is guaranteed, the installed capacity of the power station shall be determined by combining the usable floor area of the roof, the capacity of the transformer and the electric power of the enterprise. Generally, the technical department is required to carry out preliminary design and component layout, and also fully consider the problems such as the shadow shielding of buildings, and the estimated installation capacity of the comprehensive evaluation project.
(2) the first year of power generation: the annual power generation of the power station is attenuated by a certain proportion, and it is necessary to measure the first year's power generation capacity to calculate the annual power generation. In addition to the solar irradiation and component conversion efficiency, the roof type, the orientation of the power station and the closing time of the power station will also affect the power generation. Photovoltaic power station is to convert light energy into electricity, and the more light it receives, the higher the power generation efficiency. Therefore, the scientific nature of the design of power station orientation and inclination is very important. In terms of roof type, the cement roof power station can be installed at the best Angle, and its output is slightly higher than that of the colored steel tile roof power station.
(3) the proportion of spontaneous self-use: its importance is described above.
(4) electricity price and discount: the electricity price varies with different types of electricity. Large industrial electricity use, its roof condition is good, but have the period electricity price, therefore average electricity price is lower; However, the average industrial electricity consumption and commercial electricity consumption are small, but the electricity price is relatively high.
(5) unit construction cost: in addition to the main equipment and engineering costs of the power station, the individual demand of different enterprises will also increase the construction cost of the power station, and ultimately affect the yield. Especially distributed power stations, roof is limited by the building roof, the structure of buildings, bearing and so on has certain requirements, some substandard roof to be in the form of painting, in watts and improve, but at the same time will increase the cost of power plant construction. Therefore, each individual project needs the technical department and the commercial department to evaluate the unit construction cost of the project.
4. Contract negotiation and review.
Contract energy management and energy saving service agreement, the contract of EMC EMC contract is the most important of a photovoltaic power station investment construction contract, is the legitimacy of the power plant investment construction basis, the contract both sides is to investors and electricity. The purpose of signing the EMC contract is to build a photovoltaic power station for investors and sell electricity to the enterprise. The purpose of this contract is to extend the rights and obligations and risk distribution of both parties. Contract negotiation is to negotiate the rights and obligations and risks of both parties. Enterprises in the contract negotiations of several important concerns are respectively, during the contract, price discount, roof maintenance responsibility, power quality problems, plant relocation, and other matters for breach of contract, such as enterprise bankruptcy enterprise cannot continue to perform the contract. The review contract is mainly to analyze the legitimacy and rationality of the contract and make adjustments, especially the above mentioned concerns.
5. Project review
The evaluation and judgment is independently, each department in the EMC before the contract is signed on a system of project reviews, host requirements contract department, technology department, finance department and project management department and other relevant departments shall participate in the review. The purpose of the contract review meeting is to understand the feasibility of the project in technology, engineering construction and later operation, the investment return of the project and the legal rationality of legal risk control. At the same time, the docking with other related departments, to review of the EMC, the rights and obligations under the contract, need to have special requirements to coordinate, so that more specific obligation of contract, contract rights, this is also an important purpose of the contract review. Because of photovoltaic power station project, for example, is to be carried out to a third party, in the EMC contract may have a special requirement for the construction, if the EPC contract not special requirements for the host department, not in the EPC contract for processing the request, will be there for the investor by the other party shall be investigated for responsibility of breach of EMC contract risk.
(2) project implementation and construction.
Photovoltaic power station project is mainly determined by component suppliers and EPC bidding party (i.e., construction of the project), including component procurement cost and construction cost of power plants with a total investment of about each half, so components purchasing for the implementation of the contract and contract of engineering construction is very important.
(1) component procurement contract: component delivery obligations are generally the most noteworthy performance issues after the project starts. First of all, component quality standards and responsibilities should be clearly defined; Secondly, product supervision, factory test, inspection and acceptance test shall be carried out strictly according to standards and regulations.
(2) construction contract, namely EPC contract: the basic rights and obligations of the construction contract shall be referred to the relevant provisions of the contract law. In the construction process of the photovoltaic power station, the common problem is that the construction party does not operate according to the regulations and randomly tread the components.
In order to reduce unnecessary complaints, supervision should be strengthened during the construction process and the strict liability of EPC party shall be stipulated in the contract. Before the completion of photovoltaic power station, the failure reasons of the component is likely to be many, but difficult to deal with specific how to assume the obligation, if later settled through negotiations and litigation, will delay the time limit for a project lead to the loss. Therefore, with regard to the risk commitment of component quality issues, the investor can negotiate with EPC and component suppliers to determine a time node as a risk transfer point. General sale contract subject matter damage and other risks are transferred at delivery, except quality issues. (only for discussion in this agreement), before the components delivery all risk borne by the component supplier, shall be borne by the EPC party after delivery, in the event of risk issues after EPC party in any reason must first pay or liable to other ways to minimize the loss, such as later identified causes in whole or in part belongs to component suppliers, EPC can recover from the supplier again.
(iii) project operation and maintenance.
The operation and maintenance of the project is well done, which directly affects the service life and income of the power station. To evaluate operation and maintenance work, it is necessary to prevent the third party from damaging the power generation equipment, and repair it in time after the failure. Photovoltaic power station is installed on the roof to the power customer, within the scope of the power control, power station equipment normally be damage or malfunction, the power can be faster than investors find and timely feedback to the investors. Therefore, in operation and maintenance, it is important to pay attention to the stable and friendly cooperative relationship with electricity users, which is also an important guarantee for the long-term stable operation of the plant.
Iii. Common investment risks.
In the above, we have the whole has carried on the detailed analysis and evaluation of the project, including technology evaluation, financial evaluation and legal review, etc., but these are ideally to evaluate the normal items of the plant. Photovoltaic power station operation period for more than 20 years, during this period there were many controllable and uncontrollable risk, investors need to conduct a comprehensive assessment, and find out measures to deal with risks, minimize power plant investment risk. The following will analyze the most important risk points of the power station investment.
(I) risk factors.
1. The property owner is different from the electricity user.
Frequently, the power in the field, with the property owner, EMC contract cannot counter the ownership of the property owner, so investors must be subject to consent by the property owner legitimate use workshop roof and issue a certificate of construction site ownership, so as to eliminate the risk of infringement of third party rights and interests of investors. For specific analysis, please refer to my other topic "situation and processing method for the inconsistency between electricity users and property owners in distributed photovoltaic power projects".
2. Equipment quality problems.
Photovoltaic modules are the most important equipment for photovoltaic power stations, and they are generally invited to bid alone. However, the components are more prone to problems such as hidden cracks and lightning lines, but there are many reasons for these problems. Therefore, the quality of equipment, especially the components, is of great concern. The risk of component quality issues is primarily after delivery. For investors, risk transfer, but found that quality problems after delivery will still be harmful to investors, therefore, to strict rules in the component procurement contract expiration date, the scope of the quality problem and quality problems after the relief way, in order to maintain their own rights and interests.
3. Engineering quality problems.
In photovoltaic power station in the process of construction and easy to the problem such as equipment damage caused by improper operation, such as unloading, installation, storage process is likely to be component damage caused by improper operation, in addition to the need to strengthen regulation, in the EPC contract will be the responsibility of the construction of the strict rules. There is a relatively common but important, component damage may be caused by quality problems and improper operation, in this case, it is difficult to distinguish between their respective responsibility size, is not conducive to the protection of the rights and interests of investors, so it is necessary to define the responsibilities of both parties in advance is the (see the above contract for construction project in the second section). (component damage may be caused by quality problems and improper operation, belong to the tort liability law of the common infringement behavior, although can relief through legal channels, but this article focuses on plant investment assessment items, aims to project evaluation before the project implementation minimize risks and costs, so here will not be here.)
4. Extension of power station construction period.
Investment in photovoltaic power station construction, the relationship between the length of the power station construction investment to the capitalization and payback period of investment problems, the shorter the power station construction, the sooner she can plant revenues and return on capital. However, in the actual construction construction, there will often be a long period of time. The reason is that the project construction plan and construction schedule are not well controlled, and there is a serious problem of disconnection between equipment supply and construction construction. Second, the maintenance of the roof of individual projects is not consistent with the roof ownership, which greatly affects the normal construction progress of the project. Therefore, before the project starts, first of all need to do the project technical investigation, maintenance matters in advance and the roof ownership people agree, secondly must develop a detailed construction plan and implement strictly according to the plan.
5. The company has defaulted on the electricity bill.
Distributed photovoltaic power generation project charge power should first determine the starting time and start reading meter metering device, but because of take electricity meter direct relationship between the EMC contract both sides benefit, in the field, it is difficult for investors will take electricity meter starting time and start reading agree with electricity. Because the photovoltaic power station needs to be connected to the grid, the power supply department can intervene, and at this time, it can rely on its credibility. In the EMC contract, it is agreed that the starting time and starting reading of the power supply department shall be referenced. In addition, after the power station enters the stable operation period, the power users may also refuse to pay or default on the electric bill due to the deterioration of operating conditions or the conflicts with investors. Before the project implementation, therefore, must fully understand the power customer's financial status and reputation, the possibility of a comprehensive evaluation on its electricity, at the same time also should expressly agreed upon in the EMC contract liability for breach of default electricity charges.
6. The power station facilities were damaged.
Power facilities destroyed some of the reasons for (here mainly to discuss the project phase of the power facilities are destroyed, as for the destruction of the project construction phase in the above equipment quality and engineering quality problems have been discussed), such as force majeure, such as an accident, man-made destruction, the loss but can small, small power equipment needs maintenance, power station is damaged. Usually suffered from the force majeure, such as accident non-human damage control factors, and the fatal damage to the roof of the attached power plant can also be, this is not usually the power fault, and itself also suffer great loss to the power customer, ask the power customer assumes responsibility at this point is not practical, so plant property insurance is very important. In the case of man-made damage, it is possible to assume the corresponding responsibility according to the fault liability.